Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries.pdf

Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries true
By:E. Tabeau,Anneke van den Berg Jeths,Christopher Heathcote,Nederlands Interdisciplinair Demografisch Instituut
Published on 2001-02-28 by Springer Science & Business Media


Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health policy, actuarial studies, and many other purposes. Realising the importance of such needs, this volume contains contributions to the theory and practice of forecasting mortality in the relatively favourable circumstances in developed countries of Western Europe. In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of the latter dependent on demographic, epidemiological and indeed perhaps more general considerations. The thread running through the book reflects therefore the necessity of integrating demographic, epidemiological, and statistical factors to obtain an improvement in the prediction of mortality.

This Book was ranked at 41 by Google Books for keyword Forecasting.

Book ID of Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries's Books is FQ280JzE7U4C, Book which was written byE. Tabeau,Anneke van den Berg Jeths,Christopher Heathcote,Nederlands Interdisciplinair Demografisch Instituuthave ETAG "jAAKhrkzKsE"

Book which was published by Springer Science & Business Media since 2001-02-28 have ISBNs, ISBN 13 Code is 9780792368335 and ISBN 10 Code is 0792368339

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Book which have "303 Pages" is Printed at BOOK under CategoryBusiness and Economics

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Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries -E. Tabeau,Anneke van den Berg Jeths,Christopher Heathcote,Nederlands Interdisciplinair Demografisch Instituut- 9780792368335

Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries -E. Tabeau,Anneke van den Berg Jeths,Christopher Heathcote,Nederlands Interdisciplinair Demografisch Instituut- 0792368339

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